Insulin resistance and insulin secretory dysfunction are independent predictors of worsening of glucose tolerance during each stage of type 2 diabetes development.

OBJECTIVE Although prospective studies indicate that insulin resistance and insulin secretory dysfunction predict type 2 diabetes, they provide limited information on the relative contributions of both abnormalities to worsening glucose tolerance at different developmental stages of the disease. We therefore assessed the predictive effect of insulin resistance and insulin secretory dysfunction separately for the progression from normal glucose tolerance (NGT) to impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) and from IGT to diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Insulin-stimulated glucose disposal (M) (hyperinsulinemic clamp), acute insulin secretory response (AIR) (25-g intravenous glucose tolerance test), and body composition (hydrodensitometry or dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry) were measured in 254 Pima Indians with NGT and in 145 Pima Indians with IGT, who were then followed for 0.5-13 years. RESULTS After follow-ups of 4.4 +/- 3.1 and 5.5 +/- 3.4 years, 79 (31%) of the subjects with initial NGT had developed IGT, and 64 (44%) of the subjects with initial IGT had developed diabetes. In proportional-hazards analyses with adjustment for age, sex, and percent body fat, low M and low AIR were independent predictors of both the progression from NGT to IGT (relative hazards [95% CI] for 10th vs. 90th percentile: M 2.4 [1.2-4.7], P < 0.02; AIR 2.1 [1.1-4.1], P < 0.04) and from IGT to diabetes (M 2.5 [1.3-5.0], P < 0.01; AIR 1.8 [0.99-3.3], P = 0.055). CONCLUSIONS During each stage of the development of type 2 diabetes, insulin resistance and insulin secretory dysfunction are independent predictors of worsening glucose tolerance and are, therefore, both targets for the primary prevention of the disease.